2008.5 A.D.

The year is half over and where am I in my New Year's Resolution? Yep, I really did write New Year's Resolution...I know...I know...who do I think I am bringing up those three words so far into the year or so far from the start of the next one? Call me crazy but I am gonna do it.

When we started 2008, you may remember, I made a couple of resolutions. They were to read one book a month, run in a 10K race, Finish 2nd Draft of New Book by end of March, Drink less coffee, Drink more H20, and Volunteer. These were some pretty ambitious resolutions and as real life has a tendency of having its way with us, I am nowhere near where I should be by now. However, I am still fighting through and hopefully make it to the end of the year in one piece. Seriously, let's take a quick look at how things are progressing.

Reading: Not exactly one book a month. By now, you know I am working on my MBA full time and that takes up about 80% of my reading time. Still managed to sneak in a book here and there. This time it is The Energy Bus by Jon Gordon. WOW! What a book, I was not expecting what I got out of the Energy Bus. This book while did not rock me to my core, it certainly made me think about how I am doing things and how I am NOT doing things. So I got on the Bus and became a Chief Energy Officer. Thanks 800CEOREAD.com for including this AWESOME book to the Mystery Box offering, best $20 I ever spent.

Running: I am still hovering at the 5K mark and that's a good thing. Things have not progressed but with a little more focus and waking up a little earlier everyday I will start increasing the distance.

Writing the book: This is falls under creating my channel. I have been fine tuning the document and at some point I just need to stop fine tuning, otherwise it will never be finished, and get it ready for the world. Anyone out there care to recommend a Literary Agent that specializes in Business Leadership and Management books?

Drink less coffee & Drink more H20: I have been drinking so much Water that I am growing gills. As for the coffee, well all I can say is: I might need to rethink this resolution.

Volunteer: This one I am still trying to figure out where I fit in. Of course, I give money to charity and would like to do something more. Just have not found the right one. Of course, there have been some local charities that I have talked to and have done somethings for in the past but nothing nothing has panned out into a permanent situation.

That's about it for catching up on how things have been going with my 2008 New Year's Resolutions.

How are your resolutions doing?

tag this:
Dave Guerra, New Year's Resolutions, Updates, 2008, 800CEOREAD, Mystery Box, Focus, Opportunity

Father's Day 2008: Tim Russert style

By now all of us have heard of Tim Russert's untimely passing. Here was one of the good guys. Though I never met Mr. Russert personally, I have a few close friends who did.

They were giddy the first time they told me who they met. Back then I was not too keen on politics, politicos or anyone who dealt with then on a consistent basis, and neither were my friends but meeting Tim Russert was a high point in their young lives.

I never thought much about Russert and why my friends were so thrilled to meet him until one day I read the book "Big Russ and Me" by Tim Russert. It all changed then. He was now on my radar and I took notice.

Russert could have written about anything or anyone instead he wrote about his father. He gave his father the highest honor any child could give his or her father. It's is unfortunately, an honor that most fathers very seldom get when they are alive: Recognition from their children that their father raised a better person.

So now, Tim has left this world, but he is not gone. Today on Father's Day we take time to think of our fathers and by how Tim Russert and his two books on fathers changed how we will always see them.

For all the good and for all the bad, they are our fathers and nothing can ever change that fact. Of course some were better than others, still they remain tied to us and who we are now. Some fathers leave us too soon, whether by choice or by act of God they still made us stronger and better people.

Over the past couple of days since Mr. Tim Russert left us, someone said that if there was a time to lose Tim, it should be just as we start the Father's Day weekend. I could not agree more. Had he been around just a little while longer he would have been the picture we'd see when we lookup Father's Day in the dictionary.

To all you Kids out there: Tell your Dads HAPPY FATHER'S DAY (no matter where they are or what they are doing)

To all you Dads out there: HAPPY FATHER'S DAY


Technorati Tag:
Tim Russert, Big Russ and Me, Father's Day, Dave Guerra

Ever wonder

Ever wonder about an organization that courts you when they want something?

They will call you, they will send you some of the nicest emails, basically a lot courtesy on their part. The when it comes time to repay the courtesy and respond to that organization and/or it's representative that you are unable to commit or attend or just to just give a courteous "No, Thank You" you get the big blow off. This just re-confirms what they really thought of you; a name on a list that could make the numbers bigger thus hoping to make what they do relevant. There is nothing wrong with wanting to be relevant.

However, there is something very wrong with this shortsighted approach to doing business.

Organizations and individuals that work this way are not only burning bridges but don't see the big picture for what it is. They fail to see that this time next year, for example. The big annual gala is looking for sponsors but cannot court the ones that they dismissed last year and now have to scramble find new sponsors for their event.

While it is prudent to court existing sponsors and as well as those that were unable to deliver last year for the next event. Burning bridges prevents that from happening and could spoil any future relationships. Who knows, the next bridge that's burned may have very close ties to a High Profile individual that you may one day want to court.

As a word of advice to those organizations that burn bridges especially the kind that can deliver the $$$$ next time, try a simple "sorry you weren't there but here is what you missed" email. In my book, a message like that would all but seal the deal the next time they came calling.

Any thoughts?

tag this:
Dave Guerra, sponsorships, Bridge Burning, Burning Bridges, Marketing, Advertising, Missing the Boat, Opportunity

Rip-off Company Gets Ripped Off?

If a company is in the business of ripping their customers off, can they really be surprised when their own employees rip them off?

Seems that a local company, who is great at giving people the shaft by selling them a product they need but will go about financing the product at the highest interest rate possible and added unneeded extras only to jack up the amount being financed. Then they cite that the reason for the high interest rates they get for their customers is that their clientèle is more subprime than prime and therefore can only get "these kind of rates" from the lenders.

Then when it comes time to provide warranty support for the product, anything short of a federally mandated recall is the customer's fault and therefore is not covered under warranty. So there they go shafting the customer, again.

Well to make a long story short, a couple of the company's employees started ripping the company off, probably skimming off the top of the extra bill padding the company was already ripping off from the customer.

Well as all good things, the management discovered this and promptly fired the individuals and then, get this, issued a public statement that basically said they were shocked and appalled that something like this could happen.

You know it's Karma when thieves start stealing from thieves. As for being shocked and appalled, now you know how your customers feel after you give them the shaft.

Be Careful What You Wish For...

Last week, I posted how there were almost no advertisements for people to spend the Economic Stimulus Rebate money. Now, the money is pouring in and the I stand corrected, the advertisings are coming out of the woodwork, as well. Heck, I got an email from a Telescope vendor to specifically use my Economic Stimulus money to stimulate my imagination and buy a real cool telescope. Then it's like someone opened the flood gates, because the ads just keep coming. I will go on record as saying they arrived a little late but they are here none the less.

Unfortunately, there is no more economic stimulus money here...it has been spent and it's stimulating the economy (I hope). Besides, I already have a real cool telescope.

Let's Tell Technorati To Tag This:
Dave Guerra, Economic Stimulus, Money, Economy, Marketing, Advertising, Missing the Boat, Opportunity, TV Ads, Radio Spot, Web Ads

Another Missed Opportunity?

I don't know you or where you live, but where I live I have yet to see anyone do anything to promote spending the Economic Stimulus Money on any goods or services. No TV ads, no radio spots, no print ads, not even an online pop-up. If I am out of the loop, someone please clue me in.

I'm sorry but I just can't see why no one is taking advantage of all this money? During Tax season, here in the U.S., we have endless 30 second spots calling for people to bring in their W-2s and get a new car or in more recent years to use your tax return as a down payment on a new house. Don't forget about those nice people over at the payday loan place. They are forever, advertising on the radio.

Opportunity is knocking and yet again, no one is answering. This would be a prime opportunity for those mega-marts, that sell home improvement supplies and solutions, to get on the ball and take advantage of an opportunity. Think about it, using your Economic Stimulus check to buy stuff for around the house, fix things, or start a new DIY project. Personally, I am looking at tearing up that Berber carpet in the bedrooms and putting down laminate wood flooring. That way when it comes time to sell, I will not have to be scrambling to rip out that ugly Berber and scramble to put something down.

If advertisers around the country decided that it would be in bad taste for clients to promote their products and services during this state of economic noisy and confused activity then why didn't someone tell me? or was there just too much noise out there that the message got lost?

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Dave Guerra, Economic Stimulus, Money, Economy, Marketing, Advertising, Missing the Boat, Opportunity, TV Ads, Radio Spot, Web Ads

Yikes!!! It's all about GOLD, again

Yes, it's time to revisit the latest happenings with GOLD. As of this writing, the closing price was $855.60. That sure is a long way from the $1000 high. Remember, my friend that wanted to ride the Gold wave as it was closing in on that magical 1K value. Good thing, someone knocked some sense into his head. Now he is putting his focus on finding the next big thing.

Good for him! What about you? Are you looking for the next big thing? I do hope you are. Just remember, that the next big shouldn't come at a price that you are not prepared to pay. Also don't forget, the economy is not what it used to be. So don't let the next big thing put you in a financial bind. As I am not telling you anything new, it does not hurt to say it again.

While I do not profess to know what the next big thing is, I do know that the only way to determine what the next big thing is is to do your homework. It is no secret that I am a big proponent of doing your homework, getting yourself informed, and taking responsibility for your actions. Take a little time and study the markets, they are not that difficult to understand once you get a few concepts under control.

Back to our topic. So Gold is down and has been going down since hitting it's high earlier this year. On the 1st of May, Gold closed up from what was a 30 day low. So where is the price of Gold going? Up or Down???? The popular theory has Gold going down to the $800 mark before any kind of notable up swing. Of course there are analysts that agree that the price of Gold will continue drop, however, not as far. They are favoring a $850 leveling off point (which we are close to now). I can pretty much believe this to be true. As I have written, it might be time to pull the trigger and get in on commodities trading (I mean if you ever were interested in doing so). However, there might be something to consider. Please read on.

Whether it's next week or next month, if you are planning to pull the trigger on a Gold buy, then you best be ready and the same thing can be said for Silver. Silver closed at $16.36/oz. which puts it up after closing April at the 30 day low of $16.15/oz. Does this signify a time to buy? Probably not. Historically, since the summer of 2002 and every summer since then Silver remains within the same price range at the end of August that it started off the beginning of May at. Check out this cool chart I made just for you.



Will Summer 2008 be any different?
I really don't think so. Then again, we did start May '08 on the upswing, so if anything we might just be able to make a couple of dollars. As for making the big bucks, if the lack of any real activity in the summer is any indicator, this may be the time begin creating a position in any commodity. By the way, here is the chart for gold.


Very Interesting, as Gold and Silver prices appear to be taking the summers off. They both start strong but lag throughout the summer months. I'll say it again this is a perfect opportunity to accumulate positions in securities thus building a strong portfolio exists and that is a good thing to do during the summer months?

Still not convinced?
Check out this chart which depicts the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing figures for the first and last days of May, June, July, and August of 2002 through 2007. By the way, these were the same dates used to create the Gold and Silver charts above.


I do hope you are bit more informed as to what might or might not be happening in the markets. Still, don't let this stop you from doing your home work. I know I will use these next four months to create a stronger portfolio.

As always, please know and understand: Past performance is NOT an indicator of future performance.

Let's Tag This With:
Dave Guerra, Gold, Silver, DJIA, Commodities, Stocks, Bonds, Economy, Portfolio, Money

In Defense of Food (or the Neverending Book)

Over the past two months I read Michael Pollan's book: In Defense of Food. It has been a great read. While lately I have been reading business books that are part of my MBA courses. I had to push back the leisure reading or snuck it in when I could.

Before I start, you should know that I have failed on my reading a different book each month New Year's Resolution. While I don't feel bad for failing, I do feel bad that at this point I will have 10 books under my belt instead of 12. Oh well, maybe next year.

Anyway, I read this book and found it to be quite interesting. At first I thought, this guy is going to give lip service to the modern fad diets and then sneak in one of his own. Well technically he does, he does in a very interesting and thought provoking manner. We are given a history of the current dinner table, Pollan does so in a way that allows us to know where to place the blame.

Now this is not to say that one person is guilty of the dietary situation of the citizens of the United States or the world for that matter. The blame goes to all of us. We are all to blame for this because we did it to ourselves and Pollan tells us so in a way that is in our face but doesn't make us want to runaway. Pollan offers us some great ideas on how to recapture what we lost the moment we our first sip of high fructose corn syrup.

On the cover of the book are seven words or three sentences that sum up the entire book: "Eat food. Not too much. Mostly plants." That's it, that's the book. Michael Pollan delivers a recipe for good food, good health, and good living that one wonders why didn't somebody else think of it before now?

Just because I took a long time to finish the book doesn't mean I didn't try things along the way. The first week of March I ate food exclusively from the perimeter of the supermarket. Think about what you will find in the perimeter of the supermarket. That is where you will find the fresh vegetables, fresh meat, dairy products, and eggs. Hmmm, this reminds me of a logic question I had in college "why are eggs found in the dairy section of the grocery store?" Eggs are not dairy products, cows don't lay eggs, and certainly eggs don't taste like milk. But I digress.

So how did my experiment go? I will have to say it was a great success. While I did not lose a lot of weight, I did start to feel better. You could say I almost felt lighter. It was interesting to eat salads as opposed to eating starches (Rice, potatoes, corn). After the first week, I was craving rice and potatoes, so I gave in. I did not completely submit but I did give in, in that I flipped my starches and vegetables. Meaning that when I would normally eat a lot of mashed potatoes I have now flipped that and eat more greens thus less of the starches.

The book is actually now helping me achieve other of New Years resolutions, that is to lose weight and lower my blood pressure (without medicine). Please understand that In Defense of Food, it is not a heavy read it does have a lot to offer. if you're looking for something to quickly sink your teeth into, then this is the book for you. Looking for recipes and quick fad diets this is not the book for you.

I can finally begin, microtrends by Mark J. Penn. You may recall microtrends was the book that I wanted to buy and read before In Defense of Food. However, an NPR interview with Pollan got me hooked and I bought his book first. Luckily, it was the good people over at 800-CEORead that had an awesome offer that I could not refuse. They were giving away three books for $20 which was donated to the Room-to-Read organization. Call it karma, I bought into the Mystery Box program over at 800-CEORead and when my box arrived right on top was microtrends.


Taking a quick peek of the books read so far:

• Join the Conversation by Joseph Jaffe
• Be, Know, Do: Leadership the Army Way, Adapted from the Official Army Leadership Manual by J-B Leader to Leader Institute/PF Drucker
• In Defense of Food by Michael Pollan
  

Let's tell Technorati to tag this with:
Dave Guerra, Michael Pollan, In Defense of Food,
Green Leafy Vegetables, Microtrends, Mark J. Penn, 800 CEOREAD, Room-to-Read

Mediocrity in Mergers?

By now, if you have not heard about XMRadio & Sirius Satellite Radio's planned merger, or the Delta Airlines & Northwest Airline two-step, or the proposed shotgun wedding between Microsoft and Yahoo then you must be living under a rock that does not have reception Sprint/Nextel's data service. While the news is exciting, especially when we hear about hot a proxy battle is on the horizon, or how the federal government has to give its blessing on a merger, or how two airlines will become the biggest airline in the world. That is the stuff of underdogs; you know that David & Goliath kinda thing. That makes for not only an interesting story but also keeps people on edge wondering how these mergers will play out.

In the end:

• will Delta/Northwest give us improved Customer Service and more on-time departures?
• will XMRadio & Sirius Satellite give us more reasons to turn off AM & FM radio once and for all?
• will Microsoft-Yahoo give us anything better than what little they give now?
  

I don’t think so!
It will be the same old thing all over again, this time with a new name. It will be the same mediocre companies all wrapped up in new packaging, a new marketing plan, and a new image for the public to be blinded by. The flash of newness will last at least for a while and then when the SHINY NEW WRAPPER is tossed aside mediocrity will return to these organizations.

Will the newly merged organizations see the light; demand that great change, along with great innovative thought and great design be born out of these mergers? Unfortunately, I firmly believe that they will not see the light.

I MAY BE WRONG BUT I DOUBT IT!

let's tag this with:
Dave Guerra, Mediocrity, Merger, Innovation, XM Radio, Sirius Satellite Radio, Delta Airlines, Northwest Airlines, Microsoft, Yahoo

Mediocrity...yet again

In a blog post over at Fast Company's FC Experts Blog titled, Innovation for Beginners posted by Richard Watson. The post describes what makes innovation and change happen and how innovation and change can be stifled. As the blog mentions this is because things and people get old and settle for the "that's how its always been done" excuse as the way of doing business.

Over time, the organization's newbies become veterans and the veterans don't want to rock the boat. So what happens next is that resistance to change is born. The deeper individuals and organizations become rooted in what they do, the less chance for innovative production and change to occur. "In other words, when it comes to innovation, organisations can be disabled by experience and specialisation" and that is definitely not a good thing.

Thus reinforces the fact that "the longer you work for an organisation, the more you adopt groupthink and the further removed you become from real life (how customers think, feel and behave)" and that continues to be NOT a good thing.

So does this mean organizations and its staff, because they are no longer new (by new I mean FRESH OUT OF THE WRAPPER) are doomed to an eternity of MEDIOCRITY? Unfortunately, I'd like to think so.

However, not be all doom and gloom the Fast Company post does offer a few points to consider when trying to bring about change through the development of an innovation team. One of which I have to question: "Think like a kid yourself sometimes – keep asking why?"

My question: Why Sometimes?

Thinking like a kid should be all the time! Not when the mood fits or when it will make us look cool. It should be that childlike wonder that pushes us for more and more change. Constantly being Innovative. Continually seeking Improvement.

CONTINUALLY BUSTING MEDIOCRITY IN THE GUT!!!

let's tag this under:
Dave Guerra, Lessons Learned, Mediocrity, Innovation, Change, Fast Company

Learning a Valuable Lesson

Over the past few weeks I conducted an experiment which came to an end today. The unpleasant outcome of the experiment came to me as a lesson, one that I welcome and one the I wholeheartedly value and appreciate that I learned the lesson now instead of later, certainly at a greater expense.

This is how it all started. Not so long ago, I do not recall exactly who wrote on their blog about listening and being heard, specifically about what to do if no one is listening or hearing?

The post got me thinking and I responded with "If all one hears is static, is it time to change the channel?" Well, needless to say I got no response. That silence spoke volumes and it helped me in deciding to launch my experiment. Over the course of the past couple of weeks, I have created multiple attempts at initiating conversation to a controlled number of individuals and organizations. Various approaches were taken to start conversations and only one method did deliver an effective response.

It was at this point I created another test group using that effective method to ensure that it was not a fluke. This group contained close to 3000 individuals and organizations, well, needless to say the response has been overwhelming. The lesson here is that learn your lessons early, find what works, and make the best of it.

So, Dave to answer the question that someone decided was not worthy of answering: YES, if all you hear is static, go ahead and change the channel or better yet create your own channel.

let's tag this:
Dave Guerra, Lessons Learned, static, Change the Channel, Change

An opportunity missed?

Tonight, one of my favorite TV shows had its season premiere: The Deadliest Catch. If you haven't seen it, where have you been? It is a reality show focusing on Crab Fishing in the Bering Sea. The episode starts like as in previous seasons; documenting the opening of the King Crab Season.

In preparation for departure, Josh Harris, son of The Cornelia Marie's Captain (Phil Harris), purchased what appeared to be a Toshiba Regza 26" Flat Panel LCD TV. While the younger Harris said it was a 24" TV, the Toshiba website says different. But I digress.

This was the perfect opportunity for Toshiba to get on board with the premiere episode of what many consider the hottest show on Cable Television. However, this was not to be, the first LCD TV commercial was from Panasonic. Here was a prime time opportunity to exploit product placement and it was not to be. I wonder how many more missed opportunities will there be as the rest of the season unfolds? Guess we'll just have to wait and watch and I certainly will be watching.

let's tag this with:
Dave Guerra, Deadliest Catch, Toshiba, Regza LCD TV, Phil Harris, Cornelia Marie, Josh Harris, Marketing, Opportunity

Mediocrity Strikes Again

This past weekend, Jennifer Navarrete of MorningBrewCast brought to the attention of many of us that someone was selling their Twitter.com account on eBay. For those that don't know what Twitter is; plain and simple it is a microblogging website where participants can post comments, remarks, questions, just about any text message provided it is 140 characters in length or less. These messages can be sent as direct message to other Twitter members, replies to general postings, and general posting. Participants acquire "followers" and they themselves follow others, over time and a lot of trust, the number of "followers" can grow into the hundreds and thousands.

Back to the issue at hand, Navarrete posted on Twitter "So @andrewbaron is selling his Twitter account on eBay. http://tinyurl.com/3zs6kl It seems weird to me. Wrong somehow. But is it?" At the time of this writing Andrew Baron's Twitter Account had a bid of $1525 and his "followers" which numbered 1397 followers at the start of the auction, now are at 1651. I wonder why the increase in followers?

My question is: Has Twitter reached a level of mediocrity that people must resort to auctioning their account in order to make it relevant or to gain a little notoriety (experiment or not)? Is there no more originality in regards to what Twitter is or can be? I fear that by selling the account, Twitter now takes its place beside the toast with the face of Jesus on one side or the corn flake in the shape of Illinois that sold for $1170 not too long ago. As people will see it as a opportunity to exploit the trust they have developed for a quick buck.

This is not a bash against Twitter. Personally I really, really like Twitter. It serves a purpose and a darn good one. However, I agree with Jennifer’s comments in a more recent Twitter post that it is time for the Twitter people to step in and act. Act before Twitter becomes another great idea that got beat down because of its own success.

Jennifer gave us her take on the of selling Twitter accounts on eBay, I invite you to read it @ http://tinyurl.com/5emcya"

let's tag this:
Dave Guerra, Jennifer Navarrete, MorningBrew Cast, Twitter, eBay, Auction, Corn Flake, Trust, Mediocrity,

A List....

Someone recently recommended that I throw in a list or two on this very blog every once in a while. So here I go my first list of 2008. It's almost the middle of April and I am still doing first somethings of 2008...Geez.

So tonight my friends, in Dave's ever continuing quest for you to get to know him, here are a few of my Favorite Artists/Group of ALL TIME and ALL GENRES in no particular order.

• Duran Duran
• Elvis Presley
• David Bowie
• Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
• Prince
• Richard Wagner
• The Doors
• Grace Jones
• Dave Brubek
• Sting (solo and with The Police)
  

So how does your list match up with mine?

Tag this:
Dave Guerra, Mozart, Duran Duran, Richard Wagner, Elvis, The Doors, Grace Jones, Dave Brubek, David Bowie, Sting, Prince

Playing the course

Last night, I wrote the post about staying the course, which focused on buying into the real estate market. One option that I did not mention was another form of real estate investing: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Investopedia defines REITs as "a security that sells like a stock on the major exchanges and invests in real estate directly, either through properties or mortgages."

This is not a bad thing. There are different kinds of REIT or better yet specialty REITs such as those that focus on Hotels, Apartments, Retail Centers, Health Care, Offices, and Shopping Malls. These REITs allow you to buy into an organization that buys and maintains facilities to either lease or sell to qualified operators within the specialty. The REIT gives the investor an option of buying into a larger operation without the headache of day-to-day management and operation. Personally, I will buy and manage the small properties but for the big stuff I would rather have someone else take care of it, so the REIT allows me to get in on the big real estate moves.

If this sounds interesting to you why not Google "Real Estate Investment Trust", do your homework, and when you are ready pull that trigger.

Of course with all financial transactions there are risks. Invest at your own risk.

DISCLAIMER: I do hold a position in a Health Care based REIT.

Let's tag this:
Dave Guerra, Asset, Liability, Real Estate, Economy, Play The Course, Real Estate Investment Trust, REIT

Staying the course

By now you are more than familiar with my friend and his struggles to get into the Gold trading market in hopes of getting rich quick. While this might not be a bad idea, it's just not how I am built. Don't get me wrong, I will take advantage of a situation when I can. This by no means I am out to cheat anyone, what I do mean is that while stock prices are falling I will continue to buy because of the low prices. Remember that old adage, "buy low and sell high" well that's how I roll.

Unfortunately, my friend is still so enamored with getting in on the new Gold Rush that he is letting opportunity pass him by. He is not seeing the forest for the trees. Right now, his biggest complaint is that stock prices are down and his mutual funds are dropping in value and he needs to get into gold because it is rising.

I asked him if he was living off the return on the stocks or mutual funds.

He responded with a "No."

So why is he worried about the falling stock prices and the need to get in on the rising gold commodity? He is worried, because, the media is making him worry. They are all about doom and gloom...that is what sells newspapers. When was the last time a 3rd grader winning a local spelling bee made the front page of a national newspaper? Hmmm, maybe never...I may be wrong but I doubt it.

Lately, it has been all doom and gloom: who is sleeping with who, who embezzled money, who committed murder, and which celebrity is off to rehab, again. As well, almost daily on the front cover of any newspaper are stories about rising oil prices, falling stock prices, gold going through the roof and people losing their homes.

With headlines like that it is understandable for my friend to fall for all the bunk. He may never come to his senses and realize that it is best to stay the course, accumulate, and, above all, NOT panic. Now is the time for him to increase his mutual fund and stock holdings. Now is the time to scrape up some cash and buy some real estate, it doesn't have to be a house but it certainly should be some dirt. Dirt? Dirt as in earth, an acre, a farm, anything that is more dirt than development.

Why? Just like gold, there is only a certain amount of surface space on the planet. So, why not own a little piece of it? It makes good sense to own land. It can be used as collateral in future projects. Unlike gold, it is a little more difficult to steal. Carry your gold in a brown canvas bag, pretty soon a modern day Robin Hood will be helping himself to your gold. While, Robin will certainly rupture a disc if he plans on taking all your land, one tractor load at a time.

Right now, real estate is at a good place for investors. There are a lot of foreclosed properties and more on the way to choose from. While I understand that it may not appear as a good thing to profit from other people's misery, remember you are not the one who forced those people to get themselves into a situation they knew fully well they were not prepared to handle. If you can relieve a bank from holding on to a worthless property (it is worthless for as long as they hold it).

Trust me it is a liability for the bank to hold property, it only becomes an asset when they get rid of it. Just like the homeowner, no matter how you slice it, until the mortgage is paid off that castle is a liability.

I am certainly not saying anything new. I am just saying that there are still plenty of people out there that run for cover the moment someone cries that the sky is falling. That's why it's worth repeating every once in a while. Especially in these near uncertain times. My friend has been warned.

Let's tag this with:
Dave Guerra, Gold, Asset, Liability, Real Estate, Economy, Stay The Course, Stocks, Mutual Funds

Sweating the Small Stuff...

In last Thursday's Wall Street Journal (03/27/08) a small article on the front page caught my eye. The article, titled "Freedom's Ring: Kosovo Covets A Dialing Code", is about how the newly independent country of Kosovo (formerly of Serbia, which is formerly of Yugoslavia) is quite adamant about getting an international dialing code. Right now they share it with Serbia.

At this time the only way to get an international dialing code is not by calling AT&T but by joining the United Nations. This might not seem like a big deal, it is when you have to wait to join the U.N. and your newly formed country's credibility hinges on getting all the T's crossed and I's dotted as fast as possible. Why does this matter to the new Kosovars?

Imagine something as little as an International Dialing Code being just as important as the Kosovar national flag, Kosovar national anthem, or the Kosovar Independence Day. All symbols of national identity, yet if one wants to call the Kosovar Parliament, they still have to dial a Serbian phone number. So much for true independence?

Yet, these new Kosovars are willing to endure just about anything for the opportunity of getting an International Dialing code. The WSJ story mentions an incident of Anton Berisha, chief telecom regulator of Kosova, along with his daughter and aunt came under gunfire by people he believes are part of a Serbian telecommunications company that lost a mobile phone license auction to a Slovenian company. That was not all, two weeks after the gunfire; attackers assaulted Mr. Berisha again, with one firing an RPG (Rocket Propelled Grenade) at him and his security detail, luckily it caused no grave damage or injuries.

So, for the foreseeable future, if you find yourself in Kosovo and want to order some of the local cuisine from the Pristina Grand Hotel Cafe in Pristina (Kosovo 's Capital) then dial the Serbian International Dialing Code of 381 plus the number (38-20211).

There you have it, when people tell you not to sweat the small stuff. Always remember in Kosovo's case, the small stuff is what countries are made of.

So sweat away!!!

Let's tag this with:
Dave Guerra, Kosovo, Kosovo Independence, Pristina, Kosovar, Telecom, Anton Berisha, International Dialing Code, United Nations,Wall Street Journal,Sweat the Small Stuff,Pristina Grand Hotel Cafe

Gold (not that I told you so but...)

Just a quick follow up to my last post on GOLD and my friend. Well just when I thought I was going to have to eat crow out of a golden pie pan, I was denied. Seems that the quick upswing in gold prices (over $1000/oz) was just that: a quick upswing. Gold closed today at $916.35/oz.

So does this mean that the bottom is about to fall out on the gold market?
NO, it means that a chance for my friend to get into the game may be not that far off. Still anything over $900 is riding a wave that will crash. I say pull the trigger on your buy order when things start to stabilize and the up-swing returns. Hmmm, why does this sound a lot like channeling stocks? Uh, because it is.

In the end, I still say find the next wave and there is always another wave. Do your homework and don't let the media do it for you. 'nuff said.

let's tag this post with:
Dave Guerra, Gold, channeling, stocks, commodity

Always believe in, because you are GOLD!!!

Gold (another 80's reference)....a guy that I know came up to me on Thursday and said, "Gold!" and I said what? He then proceeds to tell me that the price of gold was close to a thousand dollars an ounce and how it is time to buy. I looked him right in the eye and asked him if he was serious and with a serious face he said "Yes."

It was with a heavy heart that I asked him why was he riding a wave that everyone else is going to ride? He gave me a puzzled look. I restated my question, why do you want to get in on something that everyone else has gotten in on? His response was a priceless puzzled look. I told him, "Right now you see the price of gold is at the top of a wave and like every wave it will come crashing down. Now, don't get me wrong GOLD will never be worthless but if you go in now with a minimum $10K block at the current price (approx. $980/oz.) and when the price corrects itself, it will be lower than the starry eyed price you see now and your $10K will be worth a lot less."

He responds, "but they say it will go up."

I say, "Just like 'they' said to the Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) holders that the interest rate will go down and now look at them," again another puzzled look, "What I am trying to say is that those that are talking are the ones that want you to dump your money into something so they can get out, make a profit, and leave you holding the bag."

So what did I recommend?
I recommend to my friend. Find the next wave and jump on while it is still growing and then get out just as the news media starts to leak the story to the public. He again gave me this look of utter confusion. I asked him if he had been tracking the price of gold or did he just happen to hear about the price of gold in the press? Reluctantly, he stated that he had just heard about it. Well my friend, it is time for you to start doing your homework and quit thinking like everyone else. Remember, $984 is the price of entry, the price to play. You have to give up $984 of your money just to get in the game, the last best time to have gotten in the game was on Monday, April 2, 2001 when Gold closed at $255.95. Guess what? That Gold ship has sailed!!!

I told him to look at other commodities such as foodstuff, other precious metals, and pharma. Find the next big hit, get in, and ride the wave for the long haul, get out just as it is starting to crash, which usually occurs when the media gets a hold of what is happening. Good Luck (after all isn't that what playing the market is truly all about?)!

FULL DISCLOSURE: I do not hold a position in Gold as a commodity. As of this writing, the closing price of Gold was $972.50 per troy ounce (London Fix).

and now the actual 80's reference:


let's tag this post with:
Dave Guerra, Gold, markets, Commodities Trading, ARM, rates, Spandau Ballet

Resolution Revisit

Yeah it's that time of the year again. OK, the third time out of twelve times. Today, here in Texas it is Super Tuesday and I do so hope you exercised your right as a citizen of the United States of America, that's all I am going to say about politics and the political process.

Now on with the show...Where do I stand on my resolutions? So far, I would have to say 50-50. I have been running and eating better still somehow managed to gain a few pounds (well 2) however, I am not discouraged.

As for the reading here is where I am at:
- January: Join The Conversation by Joseph Jaffe (which I started reading over the holidays in December)
- February: Be, Know, Do by Frances Hesselbein (Introduction), California School of Organizational Studies at Alliant International University Staff, Richard E. Cavanagh (Foreword by), Eric K. Shinseki (Introduction)
- March: In Defense of Food by Michael Pollan

I know that I said in February that Microtrends was on deck but when it came time buy the book, NPR had an interview with Michael Pollan and I was hooked, so Microtrends never made it into the shopping cart. Good thing for me, because two weeks ago 800-CEO-READ was offering something really cool. If I sent them $20, they would give the money to the ROOM TO READ organization, and 800-CEO-READ would send me three books from their vast holdings. Cool idea so they got my $20, well ROOM TO READ got my money. About two weeks later three cool books arrived at my door in the classic 8CR box. When I opened the box "with unbridled avarice" (to quote one of three favorite Christmas movies) what did my eyes see, right on top???? You got it...Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes along with The Energy Bus: 10 Rules to Fuel Your Life, Work, and Team with Positive Energy, and Don't Gobble The Marshmallow...Ever!

So that pretty much sets me up, with reading, all they way to the end of June. None of this is taking into consideration any of my MBA reading requirements and I assure you they are quite hefty.

Enough about me, how are you and your resolutions doing?


A Nice Thank You Note from 800-CEO-READ


The books in my 8CR Mystery Box:


let's tag this post with:
Dave Guerra, MBA, Reading, Join The Conversation, Joseph Jaffe, Be, Know, Do, In Defense of Food, Michael Pollan, 800-CEO-READ, Room to Read, Microtrends, The Energy Bus, Don't Gobble The Marshmallow, 8CR Mystery Box, New Years Resolution